New climate modeling projections reveal the alarming scope of potential chikungunya expansion across temperate regions. By 2070, approximately 45 percent of North America and 35 percent of Europe could become climatically suitable for chikungunya transmission, compared to current endemic regions in Africa (95 percent), Asia (88 percent), and South America (76 percent).
This geographic shift is driven by rising global temperatures that push Aedes mosquito survival thresholds northward. These vectors require minimum temperatures of 16-18°C for survival and reproduction—thresholds that increasing numbers of previously temperate regions are now crossing. Southern United States regions, Mediterranean Europe, and parts of central Asia have already begun approaching these critical thermal conditions, suggesting that chikungunya establishment in these areas may occur sooner than 2070.
Read the full article on GMJ Newsroom.
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